Mobile Messaging- Evolution or Revolution?

by Tom Harper, TMIA

I read the blogs and listened to the podcasts from Global Mobile Messaging 2007 recently held in Monte Carlo. I also read two complimentary (in my opinion) whitepapers by Vince Kadar (Airwide Solutions) and Boyd Peterson (Yankee Group) that focused on the future of mobile and mobile messaging. My thoughts?

No doubt in anyone’s mind that a mobile messaging world dominated by SMS is changing. The question is evolution or revolution? One dictionary definition of evolution is "gradual process changes to be different or better." Revolution in part is defined as “sudden or momentous change” Certainly the wireless carriers would prefer evolution in an organized and profitable manner. However, history tells us there will be revolutionary impacts which will disrupt a gradual process.

From an evolutionary point of view I believe age will be the primary recognizable driver of change. To illustrate I use some trending data points recently published on wireline substitution by TMIA (The Messaging Industry Association)

Data from 2003 to 2006 demonstrates that the most significant factor in wireline substitution is age. In fact it is not substitution at all. Teens are adopting wireless as their only telephone service and not subscribing to wireline as they set up their own households. One would see the same trending by age if you looked at adoption of different mobile messaging technologies.

Having said age would be the driver of evolution, there certainly are many revolutionary drivers that will accelerate the change to what Vince describes as Mobile Messaging 2.0. Some that I think will be most impactful are:

• Intelligent Devices- the iPhone is a good example of how devices are becoming more intelligent and multifunctional. We will quickly see many more on the market. The most revolutionary aspect of these devices will be access to the Internet and their ability to ultimately move control of messaging from the carrier to the consumer.
• IP, broadband and global scale- Skype was introduced in 2003 as a global service. Three or four years later they have 200M users. With access to broadband, an intelligent device and smart people around the globe we have the ingredients to see Skype-like messaging services having a revolutionary impact.
• New Business Models- Most wireless messaging services today are either subscription-based or pay-per-use. Both of the above revolutionary developments will promote both new entrants and business models. It could be an ad supported model or the most revolutionary of all "free now…figure it out later."

So where does that leave our wireless carriers? I use the analogy of VoIP and the wireline carriers. Some like BT embraced VoIP and decided to join the revolution. Others, while understanding the evolution to VoIP want it to be as gradual as possible. In the declining monopoly environment of wireline, taking the evolutionary path may work. In a highly competitive growing mobile market I might want to be known as a revolutionary.

Stats & Research: Five Minutes To Respond
Source:  Mike Grenville, 160 Characters

84% of users expect a SMS response in five minutes according to an online survey by 160 Characters that looked at how different messaging platforms elicit differing response times.

The survey looked at the messaging habits of end-users across email, instant messaging and SMS in personal and work environments.

The results highlight the ongoing preference for using SMS as a key communication tool, especially when an immediate or near immediate response is required. Most people would respond to a personal SMS (84%) in less than 30 minutes according to the results of the poll while only 56% would respond in that time to a work related message.

While it is true as one respondent commented that the response time "depends on the context and the person sending/receiving the mail," differences emerge between the broad context of messages and between business and personal use. For example:

WAITING FOR YOUR EMAIL

26% of respondents would take between two and five hours to reply to a personal email and 31% would wait till the next day to reply.

With so many work related emails, one respondent noted that "The important ones get an immediate response; the others take about an hour."

However, 26% said it would take them two to five hours to reply and 22% would keep you waiting till the next day. At least this was better than the response time to personal email with 31% waiting for the next day.

MMS STILL TOO SLOW

No one admitted to not using SMS for personal reasons but 12% still don't use it at work. However this compares to 60% who would never use MMS for work related communications with long delivery times cited as the main reason.

INSTANT MESSAGING (IM)

Mobile IM still has some way to go for both business and personal use with 42% not using mobile IM for personal reasons and 54% not using it for business.

This compares to the PC where only 15% don't use PC based IM for personal and 27% not using in business.

For those that do use Mobile IM, 57% expect a reply within 5 minutes for a personal message while only 18% expect a business reply in that time.

IM IN SMS CLOTHING

There seems to be a trend to launch mobile Instant Messaging under the guise of an upgraded SMS. Mike Grenville, chairman and founder of 160 Characters said: "There is a temptation for Operators to merge messaging types as networks become more sophisticated. These results show that consumers are well aware of the different features of each messaging type and that they are comfortable choosing the message type most suited to the context of the message." 

Global Messaging Congress 2007 – Highlights and Podcasts

The Global Messaging Congress 2007 was recently held in Monte Carlo. Several Mobile Messaging 2.0 bloggers were in attendance at the event and highlighted some of the more interesting developments at the show.  To listen to podcast interviews with some attendees of the event please visit the links below.

Interview with Vince Kadar, Airwide Solutions
http://mobilemessaging2.com/2007/06/07/global-mobile-messaging-2007-podcast-interview-vince-kadar/

Interview with Mike Grenville, 160 Characters
http://mobilemessaging2.com/2007/06/11/global-messaging-podcast-mike-grenville/

Interview with John Maynard, Vodafone UK
http://mobilemessaging2.com/2007/06/06/global-messaging-podcast-interview-john-maynard-vodafone-uk/

Restoring Confidence in Mobile Operators Following Indian Pop Idol Protests

by Rajive Chandra, Airwide Solutions

Mobile operators in India have been the target of widespread protests following allegations that a number of text votes in favor of Indian Pop Idol contestant Prashant Tamang had not been delivered (source: The India Telegraph). For nearly four hours rioters vandalized retail stores, smashed poster adverts and besieged the offices of the country’s main mobile operators.  Although the mobile operators involved claim all the votes were registered, Rajive Chandra, Regional Director for Asia Pacific at Airwide Solutions discusses what mobile operators can do to restore public confidence.

“While mobile messaging has been seeing explosive growth worldwide, no region has seen greater growth than Asia. One reason for this is because consumers in Asia are highly price sensitive and use text messaging as an alternative to voice due to it being more economical, particularly when roaming. In this region, text messages have become a part of everyday life, with billions being sent each day. They are easy and offer consumers a powerful medium with which to interact with brands and traditional media such as TV. However, with 80 per cent of handsets permanently switched on, consumers expect that their messages are delivered instantly and reliably - a challenge for operators whose infrastructures sometimes struggle to keep up with explosive messaging growth, particularly with applications that can generate tremendous bursts of traffic.

In order to retain customers and revenues from voting and other applications, a mobile operator’s infrastructure cannot afford to be congested. Operators need a messaging infrastructure that can balance the messaging load on the SMSCs (Short Messaging Service Centers) and cost effectively add capacity to support peaks in activity such as those that occur during special occasions such as Chinese New Year, large sporting events or popular interactive television shows. However, the mobile infrastructure across Asia varies widely and corresponds with how long mobile networks have existed in these countries.

In India, mobile operators are learning from the successes and mistakes of the more developed markets. On the positive side, they have invested and expanded their infrastructure, enabling them to leapfrog operators in more advanced markets with less efficient, higher cost legacy infrastructure. They have been able to offer lower prices to the market which has in turn provided a springboard to creating very fast growth in demand among new mobile subscribers.

However, mobile operators now need to take the next step towards deploying a tiered intelligent mobile messaging architecture that includes first delivery attempt (FDA) routers that add scalable capacity to SMSCs.  Tiered FDA architectures monitor messaging traffic and dynamically manage storage, delivery and prioritization of text messages to prevent downtime during peak and off-peak periods while saving operators millions of dollars.

For example, an operator who handles up to 10,000 messages per second between 6 and 7pm will usually buy an SMSC (costing as much as $10 million) that can handle the peak load, preventing any downtime. But if normal messaging traffic hovers around 5,000 messages per second for the remaining hours of the day, the operator has deployed a platform that is larger and more expensive than it really needs. 

Tiered architectures enable operators to configure a mobile messaging system that meets the operator’s daily traffic needs. They can detect when traffic levels approach pre-determined thresholds and then dynamically route messages that are time sensitive and those that can wait until the congestion clears.  This capability enables operators to handle high-volume events such as interactive voting on Indian Pop Idol but not invest in unnecessary messaging capacity. Instead of deploying a system based on peak traffic, the operator can install one based on average traffic at a fraction of the cost, yet still have the capability to handle peak loads.

As messaging volumes expand, operators need to respond to consumer behavior by coping with both peaks and troughs in activity. Whilst recent events such as the recent text voting scandal in India can cause mobile users to be wary of text messaging services, mobile operators can take a proactive stance to deliver on their promises.  Tiered FDA architectures also level the playing field so small, medium and large operators can all manage traffic efficiently and affordably.”

Product Spotlight:  Airwide Emergency Messaging Solution

As mobile devices are on hand as much if not more frequently than keys or credit cards, Airwide is joining the industry-wide effort to help the public better utilize text messaging as a key resource for giving the general public and specific groups advance notice that can make critical difference in emergency situations.

The Airwide Emergency Messaging solution is the first carrier-class system of its type and helps operators meet the growing need for public safety notifications by leveraging the untapped resource of worldwide, universal handset support for text messaging.

The Airwide Emergency Messaging solution enables an operator to deliver a single copy of an emergency text message to multiple subscribers as opposed to generating one for each recipient and allows operators to capitalize on the internal efficiencies of the Airwide messaging architecture, while offering the ability to burst capacity when needed.

For more information on Airwide EMS including a white paper on emergency messaging, please visit www.airwidesolutions.com.